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- HX Weekly: July 14 - July 18, 2025
HX Weekly: July 14 - July 18, 2025
Philosophy for Life, Rate Cuts in 1995 & More

Hello reader, welcome to the latest issue of HX Weekly!
So, what's HX Weekly all about?
Each Friday, we bring you a new edition of HX Weekly that includes three distinct sections.
In the first section, Thoughts on the Market, we'll offer insights into current economic and market news.
In the second section, HX Daily Redux, we'll revisit investing concepts, tactics, and more from past issues of HX Daily.
And in the third section, Market Wizard’s Wisdom, we’ll share thoughts, quotes, and theories from the greatest investing minds of all time.
Now, let's dive in!
Thoughts on the Market
A Philosophy For Life
Yesterday, during our morning reading, we came across an email from Sean Ring, one of Enrique’s colleagues at Paradigm Press.
Sean writes for an awesome free newsletter called the Daily Reckoning. His unique background as a former banker and financial educator brings a worldly perspective to his writing that we really enjoy.
You can sign up for his Daily Reckoning newsletters here and follow him on X here. We highly recommend doing so!
That said, we liked his note from Thursday so much, that we’re republishing it here in its entirety
We hope that you enjoy it as much as we did…
Dear Reader,
When scrolling through X (formerly Twitter), I usually hunt for juicy financial, economic, or political information that will inspire a newsletter piece.
Last night, I came across a person I had never met who wrote the most immediately helpful thread I’ve ever seen. This thread was so brilliant that I created a bookmark list called “Best Advice” so I would never lose it. I knew right away that I must share it with you. But before I do, let’s meet our contestants.
Tim Denning, a blogger with 77,000 followers, published the list I’m about to show you from Kevin Kelly, a confidante of Tim Ferriss. I didn’t know who Denning or Kelly was, but I’m a big fan of Tim Ferriss. I found all of Ferriss’ books helpful.
Kevin Kelly is one of Tim’s friends and is, in his own right, an excellent writer and futurist. He is the founding executive editor of Wired magazine. His chapter in Ferriss’ Tool of Titans didn’t hit me that hard when I read it. Now, I think the man is a genius. After you read this, you’ll probably feel the same way.
Now, let’s delve into Kevin Kelly’s unique philosophy of life, a perspective that is sure to intrigue you.
1. “Don’t take it personally when someone turns you down. Assume they are like you: busy, occupied, distracted. Try again later.”
Right off the bat, we’ve got a huge winner. Jim Camp, of negotiation fame, wants his clients or negotiating adversaries to say “No.” That way, he knew where the negotiation boundaries were. When you’re always trying to “get to yes,” you’re not living in your client’s world. You’re living in your world. But more than that, you become more tenacious when you get used to hearing no. There’s always something more to talk about. And that’s how deals get done. Indeed, try again later.
2. "Over the long term, the future is decided by optimists."
My good friend, colleague, and Paradigm’s options expert Alan Knuckman constantly hammers me with this. And I must admit, he’s right. It’s changed my way of thinking when it comes to trading and investing. I’m not as jittery. I have faith that things will turn out alright. Now, that doesn’t mean you should ignore danger signs. But it does mean you probably won’t overreact to bad news. That’s an essential skill when the U.S. markets tend to go up over time. It would have been a different story if we had been in Japan over the last 35 years.
3. "The purpose of a habit is to remove that action from self-negotiation."
Think of it like this: a habit is an algorithm. The point of creating one is to automate a process. If you do something enough times, your mind automates it into a habit. Then you don’t have to “decide” to do it anymore. Decision fatigue is a huge energy suck. Now, you can create the habits you want by repeating positive actions and turning them into uplifting algorithms that’ll happen like magic.
4. "Perhaps the most counter-intuitive truth of the universe is that the more you give to others, the more you’ll get.”
Imagine. Manifest. Share. That’s the magic formula. Everyone imagines. We all daydream about how things could be. Some take that forward by manifesting whatever that product or service is. We physically bring it from the inside to the outside of our heads, from our brains to the real world. Then, we share, sell, or barter what we made with other people. The more you do that, the more you’ll get.
5. “You don’t want to be famous.”
Luckily, I got this one early. I always wondered why people wanted other people to follow them around snapping pictures all the livelong day.
Kelly suggests reading the biography of any famous person. You may not like what you read.
Kelly also says you can’t hit the reset button once you have fame. The attention you should seek should be from your loved ones, not some strangers in a parking lot snapping pictures of you.
6. "Most amazing or great things are done by people doing them for the first time."
If you’re running a business, Kevin thinks you should hire people based on their natural abilities and then train them for the skills needed to be good at the job. If their mindset is right (growth), the rest is teachable.
7. "Almost anything money can do, friends can do better. In so many ways, a friend with a boat is better than owning a boat."
Hear! Hear! Money is great, but what you can experience with the boys, girls… or posse… is much better than counting the gold in your vault. Your “stuff” won’t matter in your dying hours, but your friends and memories will.
8. "Being enthusiastic is worth 25 IQ points."
I’d add, “Being a Negative Nancy is worth minus 25 IQ points.” Enthusiasm makes you optimistic, and we talked about that above. But being negative closes your mind to the possibilities. So, find a way to get excited about your project, whatever that is. Or get another project.
9. "Pros are just amateurs who know how to recover from their mistakes gracefully."
It took Edison 10,001 attempts to make the lightbulb work. What did he say about that? “I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” That’s enthusiasm, optimism, and grace all in one quote. Even if you favor Nikola Tesla, this advice is worth hanging on the wall.
10. “Eat beans and rice for a year.”
This is his most unique piece of advice. Kevin says this because “any time you have to risk something in the future, you won’t be afraid of the worst-case scenario.” I remember quitting my broking job in London in 2006. The first thing I bought at Tesco, my local supermarket, was a can of Heinz beans. It tasted fine, and I knew I’d be alright.
11. “When crisis and disaster strike, don’t waste them.”
Without problems, there would be no creation or solutions. Learn to thrive on problems, to welcome them. Every time you solve a problem, you get better.
12. “Finite games are played to win or lose. Infinite games are played to keep the game going. Seek out infinite games cause they yield unlimited rewards.”
This is why you quit your job to run an online business. The goal is freedom, not money. You stay in the game longer than trying to hang on to a job by your fingernails.
13. “Your behavior, not your opinions, will change the world.”
It’s all about what you do, not what you say. That’s why merit-based systems thrive.
14. “The greatest teacher is called ‘doing.’”
Get kinesthetic, baby! Take things apart and put them back together again. Hilariously, I’m not allowed to convert my driver’s license here, so I’ve got to do the whole course, including the theory, with eighteen-year-old kids. You know what? I love it. I’m learning all about cars, which they didn’t make me learn in New Jersey in the early 90s. I know an albero del motore is Italian for “crankshaft.” I’m learning to speak Italian better because I have to take this class. Watching videos isn’t always the best way to learn.
15. “Your growth as a mature being is measured by the number of uncomfortable conversations you are willing to have.”
I once knew a Wall Street managing director who got drunk before he told his number one he wasn’t getting a promotion this year. He couldn’t bear to have the conversation. His underling decided to stay home the next few days and not come to work. Then, he vowed never to work for that MD again. Those drinks cost the MD $500,000 because his bosses were so incensed they took it out of his hide.
Master discomfort. Know what it feels like. Accept it. And then do it anyway.
16. “Very few regrets in life are about what you did. Almost all are about what you didn’t do.”
My million-dollar mistake was not buying a flat in London in the early 2000s. My billion-dollar mistake was not buying Bitcoin when my crazy libertarian friends told me to. Sure, I’m not proud of some of the things I’ve done, but those things don’t keep me up at night.
17. "When you die, you take absolutely nothing with you except your reputation."
I watched the podcast Inside of You with Michael Rosenbaum a few months ago. His guest was John Rhys-Davies, who played Sallah in the Indiana Jones films. He shared a thoughtful anecdote. Rhys-Davies was teaching an acting class and asked the class who Sir Laurence Olivier was. No one raised a hand. Then someone sheepishly asked, “Was he a writer?” Rhys-Davies said, “If they don’t know who Olivier is, what chance do they have of remembering me?” He knew he had been right to put his energy into his family.
Wrap Up
I hope you found that as helpful as I did. It’s a list to live by.
Have a wonderful weekend. You deserve it!
All the best,
HX Daily Redux
Party Like It’s 1995 – The Story of the Last “Soft Landing”
This week, with the stock market on a tear, it seemed like nothing could stop the upwards momentum.
But then, on Wednesday afternoon, for a period of maybe 30 minutes, the market hard paused as “breaking news” headlines insinuated that President Trump would fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Within moments, the VIX began to rise, market momentum stalled, and the financial world was fixated on their screens.
Almost as soon as the original headline broke, another was delivered indicting that Trump saif it was “highly unlikely” that he would fire Powell.
And just like that, the VIX lowered, and market momentum renewed.
This whole event was bizarre and got us thinking about another period when all anybody could talk about was interest rates.
The timeframe was 1994-1995 and we have a great piece, “Party Like It’s 1995 – The Story of the Last “Soft Landing” that tells the tale. We originally published this note last July.
Enjoy!
The long-term history of the stock market is one of unqualified success.
Investing in stocks consistently over the last hundred years has been a recipe for success, and in the last few decades, it has been even better.
At this point, we must acknowledge this is not a fluke or a temporary phenomenon.
Investing in US stocks for the LONG-TERM is a great bet!
Despite this long-term history of success, skepticism always remains high. Periods of loss leave much more of an emotional impact than lengthy periods of success.
As the old stock market saying goes – “Bull markets climb a wall of worry.”
We have been thinking about this recently as we have considered the possibility of the Federal Reserve Bank cutting interest rates.
Coming into 2024, the expectation was that the Fed might cut rates multiple times—as many as half a dozen.
This was to be part of the “fuel” behind the current stock market run. A series of rate cuts would help both the economy and company earnings.
As we have progressed through 2024, though, the US economy and inflation have remained stronger than anticipated. This has decreased expectations for rate cuts.
Now, the markets are "pricing in" only one or two.
Despite this change in outlook, the stock market has had a great start to the year. Through last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was +16.7%, and the NASDAQ Composite was +22.3%.
Although many observers criticize the market as being led by just a few stocks, the fact is that these are great returns.
This raises an interesting question: Is the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates at all with the stock market at all-time highs?
Factually they HAVE cut rates with the stock market at all-time highs. In fact, they have done it 20 times since 1980; in each case, the S&P 500 was higher a year later.
There must not be something "broken" for the Fed to cut rates.
As we discussed in a note earlier this year (read it here), during the mid-1990s, there was a period where the Fed did not engage in drastic cuts or raises. Instead, they adjusted for several years.
Here is the Fed Funds rate chart from 1994 to 1999…

This was the period when we started our career.
You can see that back in 1994, the Fed engaged in a series of rapid rate increases to cool off the economy.
They then stopped in early 1995 and cut rates a few months later. Not a lot, but there were a small number of rate cuts.
Like 2022, 1994 was a challenging year for the stock market. The S&P 500 total return was -1.5%. It was not terrible, but it felt a lot worse at the time.
The stock market took off at the start of 1995, though. In the first half of that year, the S&P 500 was +20% and reached new highs.
Despite the new highs, the Fed still cut rates 25 basis points in July and then another 25 basis points in December.
The economic data was still mixed, but the stock market was soaring. Sound familiar?
Eventually, the Federal Reserve would be judged to have accomplished the rarest of outcomes—a "soft landing." They successfully cooled down the economy without plunging it into a steep decline.
How did 1995 end for the stock market? Pretty darn well!
The total return that year was +35% or one of the best years for the S&P 500 in the last thirty years. That is the best year since 1958!
Here is a chart showing the 1995 S&P 500 versus the 2024 S&P 500 year-to-date…

Looks similar!
We would also note that in 1995, the S&P 500 made 77 all-time highs. So far, in the first half of 2024, it has made 29 of them.
There are no guarantees in the stock market, but we think the data lines up nicely. Even if we don't see the same kind of performance as 1995, we still believe we can go higher!
Stick with the stock market here and enjoy the ride…
Do you think the economy will likely see a "soft landing" like 1995? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section online or at [email protected].
Market Wizard’s Wisdom
Art Cashin
There are interesting dividing lines in the Wall Street community.
Some "purist" investors say they avoid listening to the media. They argue that it is a distraction that takes away from their pursuit of value and returns.
These investors are almost always long-term investors. They would include great investors like Warren Buffett. The vast majority of them aren’t so great.
On the other hand, in my three decades of investing professionally, I have never met an investor who devours the media voraciously and is not at least good. Many of them are great.
These are the investors who want every single piece of information available in the market. They trust their acumen and skill to determine what is useful and what is not. They are good enough to tune out the "noise" and hear the "song."
This has always been my philosophy. Instead of "protecting" myself from information because it will distract me from my process, I want everything out there. Everyone has their own process, but real professionals can make better decisions with more information.
As a result of this approach, I have had the cable TV news channel CNBC on in the background for thirty years now. It has been the soundtrack of my life.
As the years have passed, the CNBC regulars have genuinely felt like a family to me. I have probably heard their voices as much as any other humans in my life.
Last year, we lost one of their great commentators – the market legend Art Cashin.
Art as the Director of Floor Operations on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) for the large brokerage firm UBS Financial. He became a member of the NYSE back in 1964 at the ripe old age of 23 years old. This means he was on the ground there for sixty years!
I never had the opportunity to meet him, but I know many people who knew him. Every single person I have heard speak about him only spoke in the most glowing terms.
What I did know was his ability to turn a phrase. He was as "old school" as old school gets, and his comments during market volatility were both pithy and wise.
Today, we will share some of our favorite quotes from Art, along with our insights on his thoughts.
Rest in Peace, sir. Thank you for the years of wisdom!
His most famous quote is…
“You never bet on the end of the world, that only happens once, and the odds of something that happens once in an eternity are pretty long.”
This is one that I wish every investor would tattoo on the back of their hand.
At HX Research, we talk all the time about how humans are biologically programmed to be stimulated by negative information much more than positive information. It always sounds "smart" to prophesize doom. It is just a terrible way to make money.
Also, as Art says in his quote, will we be able to do much if it ever happens?
Art had some great quotes, but he was more of a storyteller.
We thought the best way to pay tribute to him was to share one of our favorite stories from him.
This is a story about the Wall Street concept of “price discovery.” This is how the market – through the interactions of buyers and sellers – finds a price to transact.
There have been thousands of pages of academic research written on the subject, but we think Art’s story is the best version we have ever read.
We have quoted this from a great CNBC article about him, which you can read here.
Here is the story…
To explain price discovery, Cashin liked to tell the story of the time the jeweler Charles Lewis Tiffany tried to sell an expensive diamond stickpin to John Pierpont Morgan.
Tiffany, Cashin said, knew that J.P. Morgan loved diamond stickpins, which he used to put in his tie. One day, the jeweler sent a man around to Morgan’s office with an envelope and a box wrapped in gift paper.
Morgan opened the envelope, and in it was a message from Tiffany: “My dear Mr. Morgan, I know of your great fascination with diamond stickpins. Enclosed in this box is an absolutely exquisite example. Since it is so exquisite and unusual, its price is $5,000.”
In those days, Cashin noted, $5,000 was north of $150,000 in present dollars.
The note continued: “My man will leave the stickpin with you and will return to my office. He will come back tomorrow. If you choose to accept it, you may give him a check for $5,000. If you choose not to accept it, you may give him the box back with the diamond stickpin.”
The next day, Tiffany’s man came back to see Morgan.
Morgan presented him with the box rewrapped in new paper, along with a note, which said, “My dear Mr. Tiffany, as you’ve said, the stickpin was magnificent. However, the price seems a bit excessive. Instead of $5,000, enclosed you will find a check for $4,000. If you choose to accept that, you may send the pin back to me, and if not, you may keep the pin and tear up the check.”
The man returned to Tiffany, who read the note and saw the offer for $4,000. He knew he could still make money on the offer, but felt the pin was still worth the $5,000 he was asking.
The jeweler said to the man, "You may return the check to Mr. Morgan and tell him I hope to do business with him in the future."
Tiffany then took the wrapping off the box, opened it up and found not the stickpin, but a check for $5,000 and a note that said, "Just checking the price."
What are your favorite memories of the legendary Art Cashin? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section online or at [email protected].
We hope that you’ve enjoyed this week’s issue of HX Weekly…
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