Post-Trade Analysis: Marriott International (MAR)

Hello Traders! Mark from the Signal Trader Pro team here! Each week, we break down a trade to show you exactly how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm works and what we can learn from it. This time, we’re diving into Marriott International (MAR)—a global hospitality giant that recently gave us a textbook high-probability trade opportunity.

Company Overview: Marriott International (MAR)

Marriott International is one of the world’s leading hospitality brands, with over 8,800 properties spanning 30+ brands across 139 countries. From luxury hotels like Ritz-Carlton and St. Regis to more budget-friendly options like Courtyard and Fairfield, Marriott dominates multiple travel segments.

The company operates on a franchise and management fee model, meaning most of its properties are franchised, keeping capital costs low while generating steady revenue. Add in a massive loyalty program (Marriott Bonvoy) with over 200 million members, and you have a business built for long-term growth.

Despite its strength, even great companies face market turbulence—which is exactly what set up this trade opportunity.

Spotting the Opportunity: Market Context & Setup

The broader market hit a 52-week high on July 10th, only to pull back 10% over the next few weeks, bottoming on August 5th.

Marriott followed a similar pattern. On July 16th, it revisited its recent highs and its 12M analyst price targets before tumbling 20%, mirroring the broader market decline. Then, on July 31st, Marriott reported modest earnings beat but weaker guidance, triggering another 5% drop.

This pushed its RSI below 30, signaling oversold conditions and putting Marriott firmly on our radar.

At this point, our Quantamental Scoring System flagged Marriott as a perfect 15/15.

Despite the selloff, the fundamentals had remained strong, indicating a high-probability opportunity in a fundamentally strong stock.

Executing the Trade: Entry & Exit

On August 5th, Marriott printed a strong reversal candle, and by August 6th, its RSI had climbed back above 30—a key entry signal. The next day, August 7th, our algorithm triggered an entry at $214.77.

From there, Marriott began a steady climb, rising above its 5-day moving average for the next 26 days. It eventually met resistance at both the 100DMA and 200DMA, a logical spot to lock in some partial profits. After a brief pullback, it regained momentum and broke through those levels two weeks later, continuing its march higher.

By September 25th, Marriott hit our price target, closing out the trade with a 15.2% gain in just 49 days—an annualized return of 113%! 🔥 

Quantamental Scoring Review

Each week, we highlight a portion of our proprietary Quantamental Scoring Algorithm, which evaluates stocks based on a blend of technical and fundamental factors.

Technical Screening System

We look for stocks in strong long-term uptrends that experience temporary pullbacks.

Marriott fit this setup perfectly:

• Strong Trend Structure – Both the 50DMA and 100DMA stayed above the 200DMA, confirming a strong uptrend.
• Positive Momentum – Marriott maintained a positive return year over year despite short-term volatility.
• RSI Cross Over Signal – When Marriott’s RSI dropped below 30 and then cross back above it, a key oversold reversal signal and historically a great buying opportunity.

Earnings Surprise Analysis

Earnings surprises play a huge role in stock price movements. Companies that consistently beat expectations tend to outperform.

For Marriott, we analyzed its earnings history and found that over the prior 12 quarters, it beat expectations over 75% of the time - across EPS, revenue, and cash flow. Contributing a full three point in our algorithmic scoring system and adding to our confidence in the trade.

Post-Trade Reflections: What this Trade Taught Us.

We noticed that right before the decline in Marriot began, it had retested its recent highs and had just hit the average 12M price targets of analysts leading to an interesting observation.

Profit taking can trigger significant sell-offs in stocks as they reach analyst price targets.

Interestingly, several firms raised their price targets following the decline, and on September 18th, Goldman Sachs issued a fresh buy rating with a $267 price target. This reaffirmed our conviction in the trade.

Profit taking pullbacks can create low-risk, high-reward opportunities in strong companies, especially when major firms maintain their bullish stance and even raise their targets.

In Marriott’s case, the market-wide correction and analyst-driven profit-taking created the perfect oversold entry point. Our Signal Trader Pro algorithm detected this and delivered a quick, high-probability profit.

Want to Catch the Next Big Trade?

If this kind of high-probability trade interests you, now is the time to take action. 🚀 Signal Trader Pro scans 1,300+ stocks daily to identify low-risk, high-reward setups, just like the trade we just walked through. Join now and get instant access to our top-ranked trade signals—because opportunities like this don’t wait.

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Disclaimer

This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.