Post Trade Analysis - Walmart Inc. (WMT)

Ever feel like the market’s falling apart and you don’t know where to look? That’s when knowing where to find emerging opportunities makes all the difference. While panic selling gripped the markets over tariff headlines and rising volatility, our system zeroed in on Walmart. In just over a month, we booked a solid 7.5% gain in Walmart (78% annualized) by leaning into our algorithmic trading process. Here’s exactly how it played out.

🏪 Company Overview: Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT)

Walmart is the world’s largest retailer by revenue, operating a global chain of discount department stores and grocery supercenters. The company is known for its cost leadership, vast supply chain infrastructure, and consistent cash flow. In uncertain macro environments, Walmart often serves as a defensive play due to its pricing power, scale, and ability to absorb inflationary shocks—making it an ideal candidate when markets get choppy.

🔍 The Setup: Spotting the Opportunity

The broader market had been under heavy pressure, down approximately 9% from its record high on February 19, 2025. The S&P 500 had slipped below its 200-day moving average for several sessions—raising the risk-off tone and elevating volatility. The market would go on to decline further reaching bear market territory on 4/7 following the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

Walmart, which had just hit its 52-week high on February 14, followed the market’s lead, selling off nearly 25% to reach lows around $80. But this wasn’t a panic-worthy decline—it was a setup in disguise.

Price action stabilized around $85, just above Walmart’s 200DMA, and began to show signs of resilience. Between March 11 and March 17, it triggered our RSI Crossover Signal, a powerful oversold reversal indicator that’s been a reliable buy signal in our system.

At the same time, Walmart earned a QUANTAMENTAL score of 13 out of 15, bolstered by a strong history of earnings surprises. Despite the selloff, 91% of analysts still rated it a Buy, and price targets began to edge upward, indicating that sentiment among institutions remained strong.

🎯 Executing the Trade: Entry & Exit

We entered the trade on March 18, 2025, at $85.94, when its RSI moved back above 30 and as price was beginning to firm up near the 200 daily moving averaged. It briefly breached the 200 day on “Liberation Day” tariff news but continued to show relative strength and a RSI divergence—a signal that momentum was starting to turn even though price had not yet broken out.

Over the next two weeks, Walmart steadily recovered, showing strong relative strength versus the S&P 500, which continued to struggle below its 200 daily moving average. On April 22, we exited the trade at $92.41, securing a 7.5% gain in 35 days—a 78% annualized return.

As price stabilized and RSI divergence emerged, our system flagged the setup—and we acted. The result? A clean, controlled trade that delivered a high-quality return while the rest of the market struggled.

We exited this trade earlier than usual as part of our BULL SWITCH protocol, where we begin scaling out of lower-scoring positions as a non-bull market environment takes shape. Although our exit came before the full realization of our usual price target, the decision was strategic. With market volatility climbing and the VIX remaining elevated, we became more selective, prioritizing capital preservation over maximizing return.

📊 QUANTAMENTAL Scoring Review

Each week, we break down a portion of our proprietary QUANTAMENTAL scoring algorithm, which evaluates stocks based on a blend of technical and fundamental factors. Today, we’re giving you a look into two key parts of our system: Technical Analysis and Earnings Surprise Analysis.

Walmart scored a 13/15 at the time of entry, driven by:

Technical Screening System

We are looking for stocks in a well-established near and long term uptrends that have stumbled. Walmart fit our technical criteria perfectly:

• Strong Trend Structure: The 50DMA consistently runs above the 200DMA (1 point), and the 100DMA remains above the 200DMA (1 point).

• Positive Momentum: The stock maintains a positive return Year Over Year (1 point).

• RSI Cross Over Signal: When WMT sold off, it triggered our RSI Cross Over signal (1 point), which occurs when the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops below 30, signaling extreme oversold conditions.

Historically, Walmart rarely reaches such oversold levels, and entries near the 200 daily moving average have offered favorable risk/reward setups.

Earnings Surprise Analysis

Earnings surprises play a huge role in stock price movements. Companies that consistently beat expectations tend to outperform.

For Walmart, we analyzed its earnings history and found that over the prior 12 quarters, it beat expectations over 75% of the time - across EPS, revenue, and cash flow. Contributing a full three points in our algorithmic scoring system and adding to our confidence in the trade.

These elements gave us conviction to step in while others stepped away.

🧠 Post-Trade Reflections: What This Trade Taught Us

The key lesson? With the right entry, strong brands with strong fundamentals can make for profitable trades regardless of market conditions.

While the broader market sold off on renewed tariff fears and failed to reclaim key technical levels, Walmart found support and began recovering ahead of the pack. The selloff was less about WMT’s fundamentals and more about macro sentiment—an overreaction that created opportunity.

🚀 Want to Catch the Next Big Trade?

If you’re serious about capturing asymmetric opportunities in volatile markets, now’s the time to level up. At Signal Trader Pro, we scan 1,300+ stocks daily, looking for setups just like this one—where fundamentals meet technicals for optimal timing.

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Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.