Post Trade Analysis – Badger Meter Inc. (BMI)

How do you stay in a winning trade through a volatile market? You follow the system.

While the market unraveled and volatility spiked in early April on tariff fears, we stayed long Badger Meter—a high-quality industrial tech name showing relative strength. Despite a ~14% drawdown, our alpha-based stop loss kept us in the trade. And that discipline paid off.

We closed out BMI on April 25, 2025, for a 9% gain (84% annualized), right at our price target.

Here’s a breakdown of how we spotted, managed, and executed this trade while most of the market was unraveling.

💧 Company Overview: Badger Meter Inc. (NYSE: BMI)

Badger Meter is a global leader in fluid flow measurement and smart water solutions. Its high-margin recurring revenue model and IoT-driven product suite position it as a secular growth story in utility tech.

BMI benefits from strong public infrastructure demand, high customer stickiness, and consistent margin expansion. As a fundamentally sound small-to-mid cap, it often flies under the radar.

Spotting the Opportunity: Market Context & Setup

After exceeding analyst price targets and hitting record highs on December 12, 2024, BMI began a methodical decline. By January 31, 2025, it had posted a modest earnings and revenue beat—but price action continued grinding lower.

By March 12, RSI crossed below 30—triggering our RSI Crossover Signal, a historically reliable mean-reversion indicator. Five days later, on March 17, we entered at $199.59 as the stock began firming up just above $195.

Importantly, our system gave BMI a perfect 15/15 Quantamental score at entry—highlighting exceptional technical structure and strong earnings fundamentals.

Executing the Trade: Entry, Risk Management & Exit

• Entry: March 17, 2025 @ $199.59

• Exit: April 25, 2025 @ $217.48

• Return: +9.0% over 39 days (~84% annualized)

What made this trade unique wasn’t the gain—it was how we held through the volatility.

Following April 4, when the market cratered on details of the “Liberation Day” tariffs, BMI experienced a sharp drawdown closing nearly 14% from our entry price. Thanks to our alpha-based stop loss, which compares stock-specific performance to the broader market, we stayed in the position.

At its worst, BMI was never down more than 10% relative to our Russel 1000 benchmark Russel, preserving it’s standing as a high-conviction hold.

On April 17, BMI smashed earnings by 23%, sparking a 9.5% single-day gain. The stock never looked back and hit our price target on April 25.

STP Algorithmic Review

Each week, we highlight a key part of how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm evaluates opportunities and manages risk—by combining technical analysis with fundamental scoring.

Technical Strength

We look for strong stocks in healthy uptrends that stumble temporarily, offering high-probability entries.

✅ Strong Trend Structure: Both the 50DMA and the 100DMA stayed above the 200DMA—indicating a well-supported long-term uptrend. (1 point for each, 2 total)
✅ Positive Momentum: A strong Year-over-Year return, a key indicator of underlying strength. (1 point)
✅ RSI Cross Over Signal: The sell-off pushed RSI below 30, triggering our oversold alert. Historically, BMI has bounced strongly from this level, and our RSI back test confirmed the high probability of a reversal. (1 point)

Earnings Revision Analysis

One of the most powerful drivers of stock price movements is earnings revisions—when analysts raise their future earnings estimates based on strong financial performance.

For BMI, we analyzed the earnings estimates for 2025 and saw a clear pattern of upward revisions over the past few months. This was another strong confirmation that BMI was set up for a high-probability, high-reward trade—which ultimately delivered after navigating some short term market volatility.

Post-Trade Reflection: Why We Stayed In

This trade was about sticking with strength when the market gets weak.

Most traders would have panicked when BMI dipped in early April—but our system isn’t built on panic. The alpha-based stop loss, which compares stock-specific pain to market pain, was critical here. Even at peak drawdown, BMI was showing relative strength vs. the index.

The result? Navigating volatility for a clean, data-driven exit at our price target.

Alpha Based Stop Loss Review

Before entering any trade, you need a plan for what to do if the trade moves against you—because one unchecked loss can do serious damage to your portfolio..

Losses work against you geometrically, a 10% only requires an 11% to get to break even, but a 50% loss requires 100% just to get back to where you started. That’s why taking losses quickly but intelligently is key.

But how do you make sure you’re exiting a stock because of a change in its underlying trend and not just a temporary reaction to broader market fluctuations?

At Signal Trader Pro, we use a dual-trigger alpha based stop loss of -10% relative to our benchmark the Russel 1000 and a loss of 10% absolute from our entry price.

Let’s review how this played out with BMI. We entered on March 17, 2025 at $199.59 and we hit our largest draw down on April 7, down ~14% at the close of the day. The market closed down ~10% during the same time period giving us a relative draw down of ~4%, which was well within our alpha based stop loss tolerances.

This is a great example of how STP avoids being stopped out of a position based on high volatility periods in the general market.

We’d love to hear any additional feedback! Click here to add your comment or email us at [email protected].

Want to Catch the Next Big Trade?

If this kind of high-probability trade interests you, now is the time to take action. 🚀 Signal Trader Pro scans 1,300+ stocks daily to identify low-risk, high-reward setups, just like the BMI trade we just walked through. Join now and get instant access to our top-ranked trade signals—because opportunities like this don’t wait.

Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.