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New FREE IDEA!
Booting Up Some Profit
Many of you are new to this FREE daily publication – HX Daily.
This is our favorite publication to write for, as it allows us to share our thirty years of insight into the markets with a broad audience.
In addition to this FREE publication, we also operate three PAID publications.
There are two TRADING-focused publications – HX Trader and HX Income – and one INVESTING-focused publication – HX Legacy.
Every Tuesday we have been giving our "Quantamental" analysis of big widely owned stocks.
In today's HX Daily, we will share a FREE IDEA!
This is something we do very seldom, primarily because we want to respect the hard-earned money paid to us by our paid subscribers.
Today’s idea comes from our TRADING publications.
Historically, these publications have had a 75%+ positive success rate and have shown the ability to make money in ANY stock market, including the terrible stock market of 2022.
We hope you enjoy the idea!
The company is Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT). We are guessing you have heard of it…
It was founded as "Micro-Soft" (short for "micro-computer software") back on April 4, 1975, in Albuquerque, New Mexico, by childhood friends Bill Gates and Paul Allen. From its humble beginnings in that Alburquerque garage, it has grown to be one of the two most prominent companies in the world.
We are sure you are aware of the stock's success, but let's look at the stock price over the last ten years.
Across this time, the stock has gone from a little above $30 per share to a recent high of $467 on July 5, 2024. That is an incredible +1450% in just ten years!
The company saw excellent share price performance due to solid earnings growth. Here is the table showing the EPS growth across the same period…
As the company has built out its cloud business, it has seen massive growth in its earnings per share, which has led to a significant expansion in its earnings multiple.
As they have seen this growth, they have also had an excellent track record of beating analysts’ earnings estimates.
Here is the table showing the results for the last few years…
They have missed only ONE quarter—during the COVID transition period in 2022. If you go back even further, they have missed a total of only three quarters since 2013. The company clearly has operational momentum.
This has resulted in the company's rising earnings estimates. Here is the chart showing their 2024 EPS analysts' estimates…
The chart shows that the company saw negative EPS revisions during the post-COVID period, similar to its technology peers.
Since early 2023, though, the estimates bottomed and moved higher – taking the stock along with it.
The chart shows, though, a small tickdown in those estimates at the very end.
Here is the stock chart for the last couple of years, along with the relative strength index (RSI) of the stock…
Since hitting that all-time high in early July, the shares had pulled back -15% through Monday’s stock market close.
What happened?
The company reported strong results on July 30, but there were investor concerns about their heavy spending on artificial intelligence. However, the stock had already been hit earlier as the stock market pulled back.
Additionally, they were caught in the massive global IT outage precipitated by cybersecurity company CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD). They had no role in it other than the security update on the Microsoft operating system that caused the problem.
It is very seldom that the stock becomes this oversold and experiences these levels of RSI. Here is a table showing what happened when this occurred in the past…
It has only traded below the 30 RSI level ten times in the last decade. Over that period, the stock has rebounded within 10—or 30 days most of the time but has rebounded almost every time across the intermediate term (90 days).
With the recent sell-off in the stock market (or "freak out"), we have also seen options premiums expand, especially on put options.
This combination gives us an opportunity to generate income from this all-time winning company. We recommend you boot up some profits for your portfolio with this recommendation!
There are two ways we recommend taking advantage of this recommendation.
Our HX Trader publication focuses on recommending common equities that are easy to buy. We think MSFT stock is a great buy right here.
ACTION TO TAKE: We recommend that our readers buy shares of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) for up to $415 per share.
Our HX Income publication focuses on selling put options to collect income from the situation. We think MSFT is also an excellent fit for THIS strategy.
You can read more about PUT SELLING strategies here.
ACTION TO TAKE: We recommend our readers sell the Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) September 20, 2024 $400 PUTS for no less than $8.00 per contract.
● The symbol is MSFT240920P00400000
● In your brokerage account, search for options under stock ticker MSFT
● Make sure you choose the right option (expiring on September 20)
● Choose the $400 strike price
● Select "put" options
● Once you have the right contract, click "Sell to Open."
● Choose "limit order." This sets the price for the trade.
● Use a limit close to the ask, up to $8.00 — Click "sell" to transmit the order.
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