Hello reader, welcome to the latest issue of HX Weekly!

Each week we bring you a new edition of HX Weekly that includes three distinct sections.

In the first section, Thoughts on the Market, we'll offer insights into current economic and market news.

In the second section, HX Daily Redux, we'll revisit investing concepts, tactics, and more from past issues of HX Daily.

And in the third section, Market Wizard’s Wisdom, we’ll share thoughts, quotes, and theories from the greatest investing minds of all time.

Now, let's dive in!

Thoughts on the Market

Sell In May Revisited

As we begin the month of May, we are reminded of the famous Wall Street saying, “Sell in May and go away.”

A couple of years ago, we wrote about the math and logic behind this saying. Below this note, we are sharing that original piece with the full explanation and background.

Here, we thought we would update this concept for today’s stock market.

We want to give a shoutout to Ryan Detrick of Carson Group. He is one of our favorite strategists, and we particularly like his approach to data analysis.

You can follow him on X/Twitter here and sign up for his free newsletter here.

If you follow me (Enrique Abeyta) on X/Twitter or have read this newsletter before, you will be very familiar with his work.

Our note below goes through the historical track record behind the concept, but Ryan recently shared an interesting insight into how it has performed in more recent years.

Here is his table:

In our original note, we said that this idea needed to be put into perspective—and the recent evidence supports that view.

In fact, “Sell in May” has been a losing strategy, although in several years you didn’t miss out on much.

The main driver (as noted in our original piece) has been the context of the market.

When you see a strong start to the year in the stock market, that momentum tends to continue.

This makes sense, as markets trend.

We often talk about the stock market as the ocean. There are currents and tides that are powerful and, while they may change, they do not do so quickly.

We like to think of the stock market as somewhere between currents and tides—on average, about four years higher for every one year lower. Sometimes that cycle stretches to eight years up and two down, or some variation of that ratio, but the key point is that these are long cycles.

Here is more data from Ryan showing performance during the “Sell in May” period in the context of market performance heading into May:

The data is pretty compelling.

Two-thirds of the time, the stock market moves higher over the rest of the year across all periods.

If the market is already up heading into May, however, it rises 76% of the time and delivers roughly double the typical return. If it is up 4% or more by the end of April, performance improves even further.

At the end of April 2026, the S&P 500 was up approximately 8%—a positive signal.

A strong April performance is another encouraging sign.

Here is another table from Detrick showing the top 10 April performances of the S&P 500 in history and how the market performed in May, over the “Sell in May” period, and for the rest of the year:

Again, strong data.

It is also worth noting just how strong April 2026 was for the S&P 500—it was the second-strongest April in the past 75 years.

We don’t typically see markets break down quickly after that kind of strength.

Finally, here is one more table from Detrick:

This one shows stock market performance over those same periods when the market was up at least 5% year-to-date at the end of April.

Over the last 25 occurrences (spanning more than 50 years), the market was higher 92% of the time. This compares to 71% across all periods.

It also delivered meaningfully higher returns than average years.

Of course, a lot can happen in the world and in the markets over the remainder of 2026. The strength of this market, however, is historically significant.

Based on the evidence, our inclination would be to “stay in (stocks) in May and go away.”

Here is a note we referenced above that we wrote two years ago in May of 2024. It does a good job of going through WHY seasonality has worked historically.

HX Daily Redux

Sell in May and Go Away?

We are almost done with the month of May, but we are sure you have heard the following Wall Street saying no less than a hundred times…

“Sell in May and go away.”

It is a prevalent view and also happens to rhyme, so writers like to use it!

Is it true?

Historically, there is some decent data to back up this view.

In the last 80 years, the S&P 500 has gone up on average +6.9% in the six months starting in November (to April). It has also been up 76% of the time or slightly better than the average for any given six months.

However, the six months from May 1 to the end of October has shown an average return of only +1.7% or far less than the previous period. The success rate of 66% is also slightly lower.

From the data, it is true that, on "average," this is a period where stocks as a whole underperform.

Why does this happen?

We have written about the concept of "seasonality" several times in the past. This idea is that particular times of year can affect stock market performance.

Our view is that there ARE material seasonal patterns for the market. Like technical analysis, though, only a few powerful ones really count.

The most powerful of those is stock market strength into year-end.

Although there is no real logical reason, many professional money managers are still paid on their calendar year returns. This means their performance for the entire year ended December 31 plays a significant role in their compensation.

If you take a step back, the structure doesn't make any sense but is well-established.

This means many managers are highly motivated to push the market higher into year-end. Combined with the holidays at year-end, there is a pronounced and statistically significant bias for stocks to move higher in the last few months of the year.

Much more complicated – but also significant – is the fact that the stock market often does very poorly in September and October.

Here is a table showing stock market returns by month…

From the table, statistically, it is really about September, but there have also been some nasty Octobers. October has been the month where the stock market has bottomed the most.

Why these months in particular?

Our theory is that companies can no longer delay bringing down their expectations for the entire year once they get to this time of year. They have run out of time and any "tricks" they might have had to try to hit the numbers.

Combine it with everyone returning from vacation, and you have a volatile period.

It is interesting to note that May also tends to be a down month. That could be another reason folks like to use the saying.

How is this holding up in 2024?

Not so well. The stock market is having a great May. The S&P 500 is 5%, and the NASDAQ Composite is +8% so far…

This gets to our overall view on the saying “sell in May and go away” and our title above – IT DEPENDS.

In the case of this May, we entered into a stock market correction at the end of March after a ripping rally for six months straight. We called it out then (see our note here), but the market was due for a break.

It took that break in April but found a bottom after just a few weeks. This is because we are still in a strong BULL MARKET trend, and the economic environment is relatively stable.

In this case, the timing of the May stock market performance had everything about what was happening the months before. Perhaps that long rally that ended in March could have persisted another three weeks, and we would be looking at a nasty May.

The context of what is happening in the stock market matters the most in terms of the monthly performance.

What about the statistical evidence that we cited at the start?

We think that data has more to do with the powerful seasonal factors that power year-end and the start of a new year. It is less about "selling in May" and more about "buying in November."

We also think that the summer months see declining volume and market participation. This can increase stock market volatility, creating a more significant variability of returns.

We believe investors should ignore the idea of "sell in May".

Look at where the stock market is going into the month and the summer, and make your own decisions based on the current situation., not the 95-year "average" data.

Most importantly, we think investors should have a TRADING or INVESTING process that doesn't care. One that should be able to deal with the stock market volatility and still accomplish your goals!

Market Wizard’s Wisdom

Captain Outrageous

Earlier this week, we saw the passing of dynamic entrepreneur, media mogul and overall iconoclast Ted Turner at the age of 87.

Here at HX Research, we typically share insights from great investors. However, we also have immense respect for great entrepreneurs—their perspectives can be just as valuable, both in investing and in life.

Many of you are already familiar with Turner, but for context: he was born in 1938 in Cincinnati, Ohio, the son of a billboard magnate. When he was nine years old, his family moved to Savannah, Georgia, beginning his lifelong connection to the American South.

After attending Brown University, Turner joined his father’s business in late 1960. Following his father’s untimely death in 1963, he became President and CEO of the Turner Advertising Company at just 24 years old.

Over the next sixty years, Turner built a visionary media empire that included radio stations, cable TV networks, sports teams, and even World Championship Wrestling. Perhaps his most famous creation was the 24-hour news network CNN, which he launched in 1980.

He eventually sold these assets to Time Warner in 1996 and, while remaining involved in many of them, focused on his sporting pursuits (particularly sailing), ownership of sports teams (including the Atlanta Braves), land ownership (becoming one of the largest private landowners in America), and philanthropy.

Turner leaves a legacy of boundless optimism and stands as a true American entrepreneur. Rest in power.

Below are some of Turner’s insights over the years, along with our thoughts.

Enjoy, and have a great weekend.

This reminds us of one of our personal views – intelligence is like any other physical attribute.

There are people that are 7-feet tall and there are people that are the equivalent of that in terms of brain power.

That doesn’t mean, though, that the tallest person is the best basketball player. In fact, many of them are terrible. This is also true in investing.

Instead, it is a combination of a certain level of intelligence, hard work and willingness to learn that defines great traders.

The mind truly is another muscle.

Turner was known for his incredible will to win. He also was willing to DO THE WORK.

This is one of our big sayings here at HX Research.

Investors and traders that succeed are the ones that are willing to do the work. The work to find the trade. The work to improve their process.

The work to succeed.

This quote reminds us of our view on long-term investing and selectivity.

If you look for investments with +30% returns, you likely will generate an annual return somewhere below that amount.

Why not look for +300% returns?

Then even if you are wrong on many (most) of them, you just a need a few to hit to make you life changing wealth.

Turner was referencing his news business CNN here, but the same could be said of the markets.

The most profitable markets for savvy traders are the most violent. Those driven by dramatic geo-political events and recessions.

We never want to see these events happen, but as traders we need to be prepared to take advantage.

That can be the difference over many years between mediocre and exceptional returns.

We are just going to let this quote sit by itself. It truly defined Turner.

We hope that you’ve enjoyed this week’s issue of HX Weekly…

Do you have any thoughts, questions, or feedback? Tell us more in the comment section or at [email protected].